I debated with myself whether I should do the same PR but with pitchers. Pitchers are glorified losers and as such should not be given any attention or respect, lest they begin to think they have any value beyond letting the other team make a fool of them time after time. Alas, out of respect for the GM's who (foolishly) built a strong farm of arms, I have reluctantly included the pitching prospects that fill out the rest of the top 50. Enjoy.
1. SP Jaime Espinoza (POC)
‘Dracula’ Espinoza was the #1 overall prospect in the BSA in 2023. At 22 years old with a solid season in A, he looks like a solid two-pitch reliever but not much more. He’s also got attitude problems so I’d guess he will be only a fringe BSA bullpen piece.
Career WAR as of 2028: 3.9
3. SP Armand Calazzo (BOS)
Calazzo has a nice arsenal and can hit 100 mph. Looks to be a great prospect for Boston, but probably not an ace. Looks like he might develop control problems.
Career WAR as of 2028: 1.5
4. SP Dale Downs (StC)
Another two pitch stud, but this guy looks like he could be an elite reliever for St. Charles. Too bad he’s already 25 because this guy could have some good years in his prime.
Career WAR as of 2028: big fat 0
8. SP Dave Smith
‘Dog House’ Smith is a very solid but underwhelming prospect compared to some of the pitching talent in 2028. Looks like a solid innings eater for many, many years. Will need to develop his off speed pitches to become an ace, but still looks like he could put up respectable numbers.
Career WAR as of 2028: 0.9
10. CL Dave Rhodes (TOR - now HOU)
Dave Rhodes looks like a classic closer in the style of Mariano. Low stamina but a great cutter and offspeed pitch. Needs to improve his control significantly otherwise it could be his downfall.
Career WAR as of 2028: 2.0
11. CL Juan Ortiz (Reno)
Juan Ortiz looks like a poser. He has amazing K/9 numbers and a solid ERA, but I don’t think those two pitches will carry him at the major league level. Little too old and a little too wild.
Career WAR as of 2028: 0.2
13. SP Antonio Rijo (Sea)
Truck Stop actually looks like a future major leaguer. He’s not amazing at any one thing but he can do everything pretty well. Only 23 years old and at the AAA level for multiple years, he looks a lock to contribute in the BSA if he can stay away from those truck stops during the offseason.
Career WAR as of 2028: 13.9
14. SP Ben Moody (StC)
‘Black Jack’ Moody has a massive arsenal and has dominated at AAA for two years by the age of 24. Easy pick to be a future star. About a 9 k/bb ratio makes this guy look like the best pitching prospect, period.
Career WAR as of 2028: 23.6
16. SP Marty Burgess (LCC)
That's right, Marty Burgess is a faceless man. It's no wonder he has a 10.9 k/9 when the opposing team literally cannot see him. Burgess is another very promising prospect and at just 22 years old and in AA, is on pace for a massive 7 war season. What a stud this boy is, I don't see any reason he couldn't be a solid #2 starter for years.
Career WAR as of 2028: 16.1
19. RP Alex Villegas
Villegas looks in fear for his life in his team photo, there. He has probably just realized who his GM is a few seconds before the photo was taken. I suspect he had the StC franchise's future flash before his eyes for a moment. This guy has a career 6 bb/9, I have no idea what he's doing on this list.
Career WAR as of 2028: 0.7
20. SP Mike Pierce (POC)
Mike 'DangerMan' Pierce won best prospect mustache award in 2023, and was also in the running for best prospect nickname. Can his performances match up to his legendary facial hair and nickname? No. Pierce is a two pitch starter with 262 walks in his 440 innings in the minors. The only danger Mike poses is to his own team.
Career WAR as of 2028: -1.1
22. SP Luis Vargas (Baffin)
Back in 2023 Luis Vargas was one of those boys I had my eye on. Loved the guy. He pitched in AA, AAA, and the BSA in 2023, and that might have been too much movement if you ask me. Still, this guy has a killer changeup and pinpoint control and I think he could be great.
Career WAR as of 2028: 13.9
23. RP Jonathan Phillips (Jersey)
Phillips is basically 'Dangerman' Pierce 2.0. I don't know why these no-control two-pitch hacks keep making it onto the top 50. This guy's shite.
Career WAR as of 2028: 1.0 (Hey wow that's actually not bad for how shit you are)
24. SP Edward Baker (NO)
'A-Li' Baker has a nice big ego and a nice arsenal to match. Dude seems like a competitor, and both my scout and the stats love him. He only has 3 pitches but they are all plus pitches, so I think he could be a real player one day.
Career WAR as of 2028: 16.4
26. SP Jorge Ruiz (NO)
Yet another former 1st round pick by New Orleans, this guy also has 3 plus pitches.. Doesn't have the stats to back it up though, and he's had an additional year over Baker to get it together. I definitely think he'll find his way into a BSA rotation but I'm not sure he'll ever be more than a 3-4 guy.
Career WAR as of 2028: -0.5
28. SP Darrell Harding (Greenville)
Darrel Harding is brand new to the league, having just been drafted in....wait a minute, 2021? This guy got drafted by Greenville in 2021, then returned to college anyway and put up a 5.8 era. It never says he was drafted again so I'll assume he moped back to Greenville with his tail between his legs after that performance during his last year in college. In his 64 innings in his first taste of single A, this guy has an 18 k/9. So, uh, yeah. Absolute stud.
Career WAR as of 2028: 4.6
33. RP Antonio Martinez (LCC)
Wrong, wrong, wrong. 2 pitches, 2 stamina, how this guy even calls himself an athlete is beyond me. The good news for Antonio is that his BABIP has sat at around 0.350 the last couple years so there seems to be room to improve. Or, you know, all the hits he gives up are frozen ropes. Only time will tell.
Career WAR as of 2028: 3.4
35. RP Ienobu Sato (NO)
Sato was a minor league discovery out of Japan by New Orleans. He's nothing special but for an international find it's pretty impressive. He's a flamethrowing two-pitch groundballer with great movement and stuff. His low stamina and lack of stats to back up his scouting ratings mean he will probably be a fringe BSA bullpen piece going forward. Wouldn't surprise me if he turned into more than that though.
Career WAR as of 2028: 4.3
36. SP Rob Lucas (KCK)
A former 1st round pick by KCK, to be honest my scout hates him. So much. And his first two trips to single A back this up. After his first 120 innings in single A, across 2021-2022, he had just under a 9 era. Nine. niiiiiiiiine.
Career WAR as of 2028: not yet made BSA
37. SP Aaron Palmer (St. Louis)
'Road Runner' Palmer seems to me like a hit or miss candidate. He's improved after the first year at every level he's been at, but there have been some real struggles the first time at each level. He looks like he could be so good with those 4 strong pitches, but he also has had multiple seasons with ERA's over 6 (mind you, those were shortened seasons about 50 IP each). I'm gonna guess it's more hit than miss and Aaron becomes a respectable cog in a BSA rotation.
Career WAR as of 2028: 7.2
38. SP Claudio Martinez (St. Louis)
I just don't know what it is with these pitchers. This guy has a career 4.99 ERA in the minors, is nicknamed 'grasshopper' and has never had a whip under 1.6. And yet he is a top 50 prospect. In truth though he's got the goods and is only 21 at AA, so it looks very promising for this young grasshopper. Given a couple more years in the minors, he should be a starter in 2025-2026. If he is called up before 2025 I bet he gets ruined.
Career WAR as of 2028: 4.4
41. SP Anthony O' Connor (NO)
Anthony 'couldn't get more Irish' O'Connor looks like Kendrick's keebler elf cousin. When hes not baking cookies in a tree he likes whipping up K's on the mound. 14.6 k/9 to be exact. 14.6. Sure he's only got 40 innings but the guy has a 12.8 career k/9 across all levels. Beast.
Career WAR as of 2028: 4.5
42. CL Tatsuzo Harada (Austin)
Harada is not well liked by his teammates. He is also not well liked by me. He has a 14 k/9 which sounds great, right? He is also walking more than a batter per inning. He's got two ++ pitches but if you can't get em over the plate it doesn't matter. Doubtful he makes it at the major league level.
Career WAR as of 2028: -0.5
44. RP Jorge Aybar (CLV)
Ey, Jorge! This is one of the players that makes me think WAR isn't a great one-size-fits-all stat to analyze success rates at the major league level. I'm gonna cheat and look ahead to 2027 so I can explain why. Aybar got moved from Cleveland (Plymouth) to Springfield and has been at the BSA level ever since. He's pitched nearly 250 innings over 4 years out of Springfield's bullpen at a 3.4 ERA and yet has only amassed 2 war. Anybody knows a 3.4 era pitcher in springfield is worth far far more than that, as the Stars stadium has ruined many a pitcher. Anyway, there has to be some general way to review their performance so I'm sticking to it.
Career WAR as of 2028: 2.3
48. SP Robbie Daniel (NO)
Robbie Daniel looks like Mr. potato head decided to try a career in baseball. 'nuff said.
Career WAR as of 2028: 3.0
49. SP Walt Burton (Orlando)
-no stats
Walt "Sundown' Burton had the sun go down on his 2023 season before it even began. A torn rotator cuff injury in 2022 kept him out for 12 months and he wouldnt get more than a few starts in 2023. Still, you gotta love a guy with the tenacity to wear such disgusting facial hair.
Career WAR as of 2028: 7.6
______________________________
Some of these prospects may have only just been called up this past season or two, so career WAR is a bit rough to use.
Because of this I'm gonna make the cutoff relatively low. If a player amassed over 2.0 war since 2023 I'll say they "made it", in that they likely do have a career. Any player with over 10 war in that time is a star. Any player below 2.0 war is a terrible, terrible person.
# of pitchers in 2023's Top 50: 26
# of pitchers who turned into stars: 5
# of pitchers who 'made it': 11
# of pitchers who became total failures at life: 9
# of pitchers who have yet to reach BSA: 1
Percentage of Top 50 pitching prospects who are experiencing respectable careers: 64%
The summary from these two PR's is that the top prospects lists have value but are not infallible. It looks like the majority of prospects in the top 50 go on to have respectable careers, or good enough to be fielded by one of the 30 BSA teams. Still, it is no guarantee. Only about 1 in every 4 top 50 prospects is likely to go on to have a remarkable career. My other question related to this is how many superstars avoided being on the top 50 list at any point, so I may look into that soon if I can.
Have a nice day
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