I recently harvested some files from an old laptop and found a BSA file from OOTP 16. I will be using that to analyze how the top 50 prospects from 2023 have developed in the four BSA years that have since passed. There was some talk in 2027 about whether the top prospects lists matter, so since I am curious I'd like to walk through the top 50, give a little blurb of how I feel about them, and then determine what percentage of the top 50 prospects were a "success". (hard to define sometimes, I know. I am simply going to use career WAR)
I am analyzing the players based on data available in 2023. However, the last line for each player is their career WAR as of 2028 at the major league level, which I obviously had to look into the future to determine.
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It was the dog days of summer in 2023 and the top 50 hitting prospects in the BSA were as follows...
2. CF Randy Sheppard (SEA)
Looks like a stud. A great defender with a lot of promise, he's got a 0.786 OPS in his first run through AA. Given another couple years he looks like he could be a real player in the BSA as soon as 2025.
Career WAR as of 2028: 5.2
5. LF Jose Rodriguez (MAU)
Jose has lived up to hnis nickname by having a stinky year in AAA. It's not totally his fault though. Stinky Rodriguez was drafted in 2020 and 2021 by the Toronto Titans and failed to sign both times. As a result he sat around his house in 2021 and played 0 games of baseball. He was then drafted by Maui in 2022 and sent directly to AA and then to AAA after 19 games. If that doesn't fuck a prospect up I don't know what would.
Career WAR as of 2028: -0.7 (Why Barry? Why do you do these things?)
6. CF Max Jones (CLE)
Looks like a decent player. A speed merchant on the basepaths and a solid glove in the outfield, I still think his mediocre contact ability probably mean he won't have any sort of memorable career. Looks like a future BSA depth piece. Should probably spend more time in A since he only got 18 career games there.
Career WAR as of 2028: 0.1
7. RF Cesar Valentin (SPR)
'Sluggo' Valentin looks like a pimp. Only 23 years old and he broke into the BSA just this week, after a 1.000+ OPS in AAA. A career 0.944 OPS across the minors, this guy looks like he could do big things.
Career WAR as of 2028: 24.5
9. LF Emilio Bruno (Sea)
Emilio is a hard one to gauge. The scouts like him, he absolutely mashed throughout all of high school, but he simply hasn't put it together. He's approaching 250 games played in A and his highest OPS yet is 0.718. The good news is it's trending in the right direction as he has been better every year at A than the year before. If it continues as I expect he will be a player in the BSA, but it looks like hes got a long road ahead.
Career WAR as of 2028: 0.8
12. Stephen Wilson (LCC)
Stephen Wilson is a tidy player. Solid defense up the middle and an impressive bat, his lowest OPS so far is 0.950. SSS though. Still, I like this guy a lot. I think he will go on to be a pretty remarkable player at a MI position that is hard to find talent.
Career WAR as of 2028: 5.0
16. C Earl Wiggins (IRV)
Ooh boy Earl Wiggins is a stud. I know this because he is a household name at this point. in 2023 he actually didn't look to be as good as he is. He struggled making it at the AA level for several years, including a shocking 0.215 OPS in 2022. Still, the scout adores him and he's still only 21. Give him time to get up to speed and he will make it worth your while. There are 29 teams in 2028 that would love to have him around.
Career WAR as of 2028: 19
17. RF Derek Davidson (SPR)
Some players leave very little to the imagination as far as whether they will come good. Derek 'Trooper' Davidson was one of those players. 0.960 career minor league OPS since the Stars drafted him out of Vanderbilt and a 1.000+ OPS in AAA at age 23, he has been on a mission ever since college. He would be called up a couple weeks after this and the rest is history.
Career WAR as of 2028: 39.8
18. LF Felipe Guerrero (SPR)
Felipe Guerrero was nipping at Derek's heels, trying to prove he would do more than live in Davidson's shadow his career. He had a very nice season in 2023 in AAA but the power just wasn't developing like it was supposed to, as he has only 55 HR's across his whole minor league career. I don't remember if I juiced him or if he finally put it all together, but the power came around big time once he reached the BSA.
Career WAR as of 2028: 24
21. LF Roger Moore (New York)
Roger Moore looks like a great but not elite outfielder. He doesn't have the eye to become a top talent at this point in his career, and the extreme depth of BSA outfielders mean his bat won't play as well as at another position. Still, a very nice player and I wouldn't be surprised if he lasted in the BSA for over a decade.
Career WAR as of 2028: 7.4
24. 3B Miguel Serna (Jersey)
Mmmm..Miguel Serna. In 2023 he was playing his fourth season in single A. Sometimes the best things in life require a little patience. And for all you GM's out there that fuck with your minor leaguers, take note. Serna took 4 years to get it right in single A, but boy is he getting it right in BSA now.
Career WAR as of 2028: 10.2
26. LF Dan Tyler (St. Charles)
Dan Tyler is a pretty boring name and probably the most boring prospect in the top 50. Look at his boring face. He barely even cares about baseball. He's not good at anything, and he's not bad at anything. Just a really, really average, boring, pretty good but not great player.Will probably play 20 years in the BSA and never do anything remarkable. Expect people to forget who he is, even when he is their own teammate.
Career WAR as of 2028: -1.4
28. 2B Brock Larsen (Greenville)
Brock "Pewter City" Larsen looks like one of the rock type pokemon he has become so famous for training. Like onyx, maybe.
I suppose you don't become a gym leader without relating to your pokemon. Anyway, when he's not training to become the best in the world, or chasing after Misty's sweet ass, Brock can be found toiling away in single A with very little progress. Still, much like Serna and Wiggins you need to give them time, and since Brock is a Greenville player I can only assume he will one day dominate the league.
Career WAR as of 2028: 15.5
30. LF Dave Watt (Jersey)
Dave Watt projects really well as far as contact goes. He's got 'a decent swing and can adjust quickly' according to my scout, which is probably what Jersey thought when they drafted him. Sadly, ol Dave "Gigga" Watt has been an absolute dumpster fire. In four years in single A, Watt has amassed a grand total of -5 WAR, with an OPS under 0.600. Just embarrassing really. Don't quit your day job, Dave. Or do.
Career WAR as of 2028: 4.5 (wow, nice 1 Dave)
31. LF Jose Estrada (Maui)
My scout generally doesn't like Jose as more than a defensive specialist. Great hands and range, top of the charts speed, and not much else. His stats argue that the scout is wrong, as he's now racked up almost 6 war between 2022 and 2023. Currently has torn ankle ligaments that could be worrying for somebody so reliant on speed.
Career WAR as of 2028: Still not reached majors
33. 1B Sergio Barron (Jer)
This guy broke out in 2023 big time. Big Time. He has a career 0.700 OPS in the minors but ramped that all the way up to over 1.000 in 2023. I like him a lot. I don't know whether to believe this is a real development of his talents or just a small sample size. I'm a believer though. Not a 1.000 OPS guy but I bet he makes the bigs for some time.
Career WAR as of 2028: 0.0
34. 1B Eliott Newell (Spr)
Ahh, it's ya boy Cool Papa Newell, smoothest muthafucka west of the Mississippi. This guy could sleep with your mama and then make you glad he did it. He had 21 bombs and a 0.966 OPS in his first full season of single A. He also plays a seriously lean and mean first base. If tearing up AAA at 22 years old is cool then this guy's Miles Davis.
Career WAR as of 2028: 8.8
(Fun Fact: Elliott was the CLDS MVP in 2027)
39. CF Carlos Torres (GRE)
This guy is undeniably a monster. I'm surprised he's not higher up on this list. According to my scout he's got top of the charts contact, gap and eye. The only thing this guy doesn't do is hit bombs. Man, if this really was 2023 I'd have this guy as my #1 overall prospect.
Career WAR as of 2028: 22.5
40. OF Martin De Jesus (NIA)
This guy is a lot like Torres but with a worse eye and much worse defense. And a worse team. He's got the numbers for sure, and I wouldn't doubt this guy to reach the majors and do some damage. Definitely won't be anywhere near Torres level, but should be able to hold down a job, I'd say.
Career WAR as of 2028: 4.3
43. 3B Jesus Espinoza (Maui)
Jesus 'Sluggo' Espinoza is the second Sluggo on this list. Makes me want to keep my eye out for future Sluggos. This particular Sluggo is a neat player but he's not Cesar. He hits to solid contact and he has real power to all fields, both gap and home run power. Beyond that, he has mediocre defense, very poor speed, and not a great eye. At 22 and in AA there is lots of time to develop, and because it's a difficult position like 3B he might have a chance to put it all together in a few years.
Career WAR as of 2028: 9.7
45. CF Calvin Bennett (SPR)
Calvin "Woof Woof Goes the Doberman" Bennett has the sleek, athletic build as well as the high energy and high intelligence typically associated with the Doberman breed. He plays an impressive CF with great range and displays sure hands. He's not just a defensive replacement though, he's got a solid bat with extra base power and a consistent ability to get on base. He will have a nice career at one of the harder positions to fill in the BSA.
Career WAR as of 2028: 15.8
46. LF Rob Grun (LCC)
Rob Grun has a stupid name and I can't take him seriously. I will not dignify him with a proper analysis of his potential.
Career WAR as of 2028: -0.2
49. LF Lorenzo Guzman (Reno)
Guzman is not a smart man and that doesn't bode well for a fringe prospect. He's had a couple really nice years in A and AA but always follows them with a year full of garbage at bats. Needs to adapt more quickly and at 24 years old I don't fancy him to have a solid career.
Career WAR as of 2028: 4.2
50. 2B Dave Craig (Baffin)
Holy munchkin, batman. What's going on with this dude's genetics? Pretty sure his mom's from the Lollipop Guild and his dad is Jose Altuve. Better luck next life Dave. And sure, you'll probably make the bigs one day, and you'll probably be a respectable hitter, but the thing is Dave, you can never outhit that face, no matter how good you are.
Career WAR as of 2028: 9.6
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Some of these prospects may have only just been called up this past season or two, so career WAR is a bit rough to use.
Because of this I'm gonna make the cutoff relatively low. If a player amassed over 2.0 war since 2023 I'll say they "made it", in that they likely do have a career. Any player with over 10 war in that time is a star. Any player below 2.0 war is a terrible, terrible person.
# of hitters in 2023's Top 50: 24
# of hitters who turned into stars: 8
# of hitters who 'made it': 9
# of hitters who became total failures at life: 6
# of hitters who have yet to reach BSA: 1
Percentage of Top 50 hitting prospects who are experiencing respectable careers: 74%
ps. For anybody that has already read the pitchers version of this PR, you will see that the hitters 'make it' at a higher rate than the pitchers. This is because hitters are winners and bring happiness to kids all over the world, while pitchers are losers. Hitters also became superstars at a much higher rate than pitchers (34.7% vs 20%). There could be many reasons for this. Lastly, just because its interesting, the 2 war cutoff works much better for pitchers, for hitters in this list there is actually only 1 single player that has a career BSA WAR between 0.1 and 4. ONE! All the rest either made it big (>4) or crashed and burned (<0), so the cutoff for hitters could have been 4.0 war and it would all be the same numbers. Thanks for reading, folks.
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